Thailand:  This blog has followed the “Shinawatra Saga” in Thailand for awhile.  Thitinan Pongsudhirak has an interesting editorial on the issues at OpinionAsia.  Mr. Pongsudhirak contends that the core issue is not Shinawatra, but democracy and social justice.  For this reason, he believes the Red Shirts (a.k.a. The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, UDD) movement is evolving beyond Shinawatra, although his treatment is still the primary focus of the group.  He also addresses the class issues involved.  Thaksin was corrupt, but he is also a populist who addresses many of the issues of the rural poor, especially in the North and Northeast areas of Thailand.

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Vietnam:  The Vietnamese government is trying to gather international support to bolster itself in it’s long-standing territorial disputes with China over the Paracel Islands.  China has held military control over the majority of the islands for 30 years, and this year has announced its desire to set up tourism facilities in the archipelago.  In response, Vietnam have been moving covertly to encircle China in a multilateral framework with all of Southeast Asia involved in negotiations.   Since the Chinese government knows it has less leverage with smaller nations in the region in a multinational forum, it typically sticks to bilateral negotiations.  When Vietnam assumes  the ASEAN Presidency this year, Hanoi will be in the best position influence the other member-states to back it, especially considering that many of them have their own territorial issues with China.  However, ASEAN works by consensus, and it is unlikely that Chinese client states such as Cambodia and Myanmar, will risk angering “The Dragon” over issues they have no direct stake in.

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Anwar Ibrahim

Malaysia: The NY Times has an article concerning ANOTHER Anwar Ibrahim trial.  Over the last 30 years, Mr. Anwar has not been a stranger to Malaysian jails, nor to the charge of sodomy, but his latest running-a foul with the political elite may have some serious repercussions in Malaysia, as well as to the nation’s image abroad.  The entire situation appears to be less about sexual improprieties and more about the epic battle between the opposition and the ruling government coalition which has been in power since Malaysia’s independence from Great Britain. Anwar is the leader of the main opposition coalition, which he is holding together by sheer force of will, so he is once again in the bulls-eye.

In Malaysia, sodomy, or “carnal intercourse against the order of nature” as described by the penal code, is illegal for both heterosexual and homosexual couples and is punishable by 20 years in prison.

Any sentence over one year will result in Anwar being banned from politics for 5 years.  Despite the political viability of both his wife and daughter, his absence will be a major setback for his politically and ethnically diverse coalition.

Vietnam: As first mentioned on this blog last year, Vietnam continues to crack down on political dissidents.  For example, the U.S. educated human rights lawyer, Le Cong Dinh, with 3 others, was charged and convicted, in a one day trial, of “attempting to overthrow the government”, which amounted to supporting human rights and a multi-party political system.  In reality, that mean probably mean the eventual “overthrow” of the government as single party rule would end, which in itself is a violation of the Vietnamese constitution, which is simply an affirmation of party hegemony.

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Vietnam: The Asia Times has a fairly detailed article on Vietnam’s transportation bottleneck.  Specifically, it takes a look at Vietnam’s port capacity as compared to its neighbors in the region, and how it’s current infrastructure needs to improve if Vietnam wishes to continue to see economic growth.  To remedy the issue, the Vietnamese government is calling on private investors to fund more development projects.  However, in the current world economy, in combination with Vietnam’s history of extreme corruption in such projects, this strategy does not look hopeful.  To make matters worse, Vietnam’s exports have been down, declining for the first time since economic reforms began in the nation.   Hanoi has also been forced to devalue its currency by 5% in the last month (which is becoming all too common).  Lastly, Vietnam’s growth rate dropped to almost half of its typical growth rate of 7%.  It is, at best, uncertain that there will be enough capital inflow to cover the cost of these projects considering the unattractiveness of the investment environment.

…..click here to read more

*Attention: Readers,  I will be taking a two week break from posting.  Posting will restart December 20th*

Cambodia:  More on the battle between soft authoritarian leader, Prime Minister Hun Sen and Cambodian opposition leader, Sam Rainsy.  Rainsy’s theatrics concerning a territorial dispute between Vietnam and Cambodia resulted in Hun Sen stripping Rainsy of his parliamentary immunity, leaving him open to criminal charges and possible expulsion from the National Assembly.  This is probably not likely to happen; it is more likely Hun Sen just wants to show that he is the boss.

Malaysia: The Anwar Ibrahim vs the UMNO circus continues. Anwar faces sodomy charges, yet again.

Vietnam: The World Bank is expressing confidence in the Vietnamese governments measures to stabilize its economy.

Myanmar: The regimes highest court is considering an appeal from opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi over the 18 month extension of her house arrest.  This comes as no surprise, due to the political rapprochement by the Obama Administration with the regime (the EU is involved as well), the junta is interested in “making nice”, for the time being.

Vietnamese Dong

Vietnam - Well it finally happened. Vietnam devalued its currency, again, this time by 5% and increased its interest rates by 1% (moving it to 8%).  This is the 3rd devaluation of the Vietnamese Dong since June of 2008.  This blog reported that Vietnam was having some currency liquidity issues for awhile, but they were not seeking international help, it seemed they were trying to buttress their currency with hard currency from Japan.  Analyst are worried how the increased competitiveness of Vietnam’s exports will affect other nations in the region in regard to certain textiles, agriculture, and manufacturing markets.  However, unlike China’s continual currency manipulation to maintain its low peg to the dollar, Vietnam appears to be decreasing the value of the Dong as a “devaluation to end all devaluations…”:

Vietnam has economic problems, though, many of which contributed to the decision to devalue. In sharp contrast to many other emerging markets, whose currencies have gained value against the dollar this year, Vietnam continues to face severe downward pressure on its currency, in part because it is one of Asia’s only economies with both a fiscal budget deficit and a current-account deficit.

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Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

APEC -  Gregory Clark, over at Japan Times, argues that APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) is an obsolete framework that was never very affective in the first place.  If one agrees with him or not, he gives a good background on the history of various political-economic groupings in East-Southeast Asian region since the Cold War.

Obama’s Trip to Asia:  While on his first presidential trip to Asia, Barack Obama stated in Tokyo:

“The United States does not seek to contain China, nor does a deeper relationship with China mean a weakening of our bilateral alliances,” Obama said.

“On the contrary, the rise of a strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations,” he said.

If you believe that I have an igloo in Iraq to sell you! The Obama Administration wants a China it can work with and control for reasons discussed previously on this blog.

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Philippines:   China and the Philippines signed two major agreements last week.   The first agreement, the Joint Action Plan for Strategic Cooperation,  is a bilateral relations road map for the next five years.  The second, the Philippines-China Consular Agreement, is the first consular agreement that the Philippines has negotiated with another nation.  This agreement includes notification of detention of Filipino nationals, and a framework for repatriation disputes.   Some future goals include strengthening political, economic and tourism exchanges between the the countries.  They also wish to cooperate on territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

…..click here to read more

Vietnamese Dong Bills

Asia Times Online has several great articles out this week on Southeast Asia:

- Vietnam could be facing another currency crisis.  The  Vietnamese Dong may crash due to the governments unsustainable trade and spending deficits.   Apparently, things got out of hand as early as late 2007, when Vietnam started printing Dong based off of the massive influx of U.S. dollars into its economy.  The government failed to deal with the resulting liquidity issues, which lead to a  30% increase in inflation by the middle of 2008.  Hanoi’s  response has been to increase interest rates, implement price controls, and reign in government spending.

…..click here to read more

Vietnam's PM Nguyen Tan Dung

The Arroyo Administration and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) have signed an agreement to form an “International Contact Group” to help negotiate a peace agreement between the two sides in the  predominately Muslim island of Mindanao.  Got all that?  The agreement was signed in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.  For more background go here.

- The Vietnamese PM, Nguyen Tan Dung,  stated that all property in Vietnam belongs to the government. This is not exactly reassuring to foreign investor, but his remarks were specifically directed at the Vatican, which recently requested the return of all land the Catholic Church had owned.  The communist government started confiscating Catholic Church land in 1954, before North and South Vietnam were united under their rule.  In recent weeks Vietnamese Catholics have held demonstrations demanding the government return these properties.  It is believed that in less than two months, Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet will travel to the Vatican for meeting with Pope Benedict XVI on the  re-establishment of diplomatic relations.  Yet, in recent months, the Vietnamese government has been cracking down on Catholic dissidents.  It is possible that Vietnam wishes to make clear to the Vatican the limits of its tolerance ahead of time, if the meeting will even take place.  There are believed to be six million Catholics in Vietnam, the highest number in SE Asia outside the Philippines.

…..click here to read more