In an update to Friday’s post on the Myanmar-Chinese border conflict, it appears the Burmese military has successfully routed the Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Kokang, a predominately ethnic Chinese militia in the Kokang region of the Shan State.  This attack by central government forces was a violation of the 20 year old ceasefire.  Officially, the government is living up to the commitment it made to halt drug trafficking.  The junta also claims Kokang has a rebel arms factory.   There is no consensus on the extent of the drug trade in the region, but most believe the the military action is part of a larger plan to liquidate the largest remaining rebel forces ahead of next years “election”.

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AP / Lehtikuva - Refugees in Yunnan

- Strong 2nd Quarter economic growth was shown in the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.   Singapore did especially well,  recovering  from the worst recession in its history.  The rebound in these states is  attributed to government stimulus, financial reforms, and strong industrial fundamentals.    However, exports still drag, largely due to weak Western (and Japanese) markets.  Southeast Asian consumer confidence has slowly ticked up though.

- Ousted Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra is causing more political turmoil from exile.  His red-shirt supporters will rally this Sunday, which could be a continuation of the violent anti-government riots in April of 2009.    Current PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva has the support of the military, royalists, and business elite, but has yet to gain the favor of the poor, Thaksin’s key constituents, who feel marginalized by Bangkok’s elites.  Some analysts see the governments use of the “Internal Security Act” to mobilize the military at a sub-martial law level, as a sign that Abhsit knows his ruling coalition is fracturing and fear the instability may spillover into the streets — again.   The economy is part of what is hurting Abhisit, but the rate of economic recovery is not fully under his control, as the recession is global in nature, still…

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Filipina Maids in HongKong

- Asia Times has an article on how the Filipino economy has stayed afloat due to the prodigious amount of   remittance it receives.  In a sense, Filipinos are to parts of East Asia and the Middle East what Mexican and Central Americans are to the United States or to a lesser extent, Former Soviets from the Asian republics are to Russia.  This capital inflow is an important substitute for the FDI the Philippines has failed to acquire.

OFWs [Overseas Filipino Workers]  sent home $16.4 billion last year, making the Philippines the world’s fourth largest recipient of remittances, trailing only India ($45 billion), China ($34 billion) and Mexico ($26 billion), according to the World Bank.

At the same time, FDI into the country continues to contract, falling to a mere $44 million in the first quarter of this year, a staggering 83% decline over the same period in 2008. The decline marks a disturbing down trend: total FDI fell from $2.91 billion in 2007 to $1.52 billion last year, marking a 48% year-on-year decline. Analysts attribute the downturn broadly to waning foreign investor interest in Philippine manufacturing compared with other low-cost countries in the region.

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Terror Suspects

Today, the head of the Indonesian police, Chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri, stated that there was no assassination plot against Obama, contradicting August 20th statements by Indonesian Center for Intelligence and National Security analyst Dynno Chressbon.  Other analyst have been critical of  Chressbon’s contention that Jihadis had planned to assassinate Obama at the National Airport, because it is most likely Obama would land at a much more secure military facility.

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Thai Soldiers on the Cambodian Border

- The New York Times has a great article on the post-Aquino Philippines, which discusses the disillusionment many Filipinos feel with the state of their society.  The conclusion is that although the political structure of the nation changed the underlying political culture did not, which resulted in the lackluster political and economic performance that has been seen over the last 20 years.  It is remarkable to me, that although the Philippines has not been under Spanish control for over 110 years and do not tend to speak Spanish as a primary language, there are significant parallels between its political dramas and those historically seen in Latin America, possibly more than exist between the Philippines and  its Malayo-Polynesian speaking neighbors, Malaysia and Indonesia.

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Malaysian PM Najib Razak

-Najib Razak’s  United Malays National Organization (UMNO) is fanning racial flames in an attempt to shore up power for its National Front Coalition.   Although Najib came to office promising to be more inclusive of minorities, recent electoral pressure from the opposition People’s Alliance has prompted a change in strategy.  Analyst believe the UMNO wants to strip Malay support from the People’s Alliance by arguing the party is against ethnic Malay interests.    This is risky because they run a risk of alienating secular Chinese support in the National Front.  Ethnic Malays make up 55% of the population and the largest minority group, the ethnic Chinese are approximately a quarter of the population.    The August 25th election will determine  if the UMNO’s strategy bears fruit.  The article also touches on the affirmative action system for the Malaysian majority.

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Sen. Webb and wife, Hong Le Webb

- U.S. Senator Jim Webb (Dem. VA) recently met with the Burmese Junta and Aung San Suu Kyi and successfully secured the relief of the John Yettah, the Americans whose odd actions initiated the latest Aung San Suu Kyi trial and conviction.   If the Obama Administration really wants to take  take proactive and pragmatic steps toward closer relations with ASEAN in order to check China’s movements in the region this is an opportune time.  They can use this event as an excuse to expand diplomatic discussions with the  junta.  As discussed previously, the United States is limited in its ability to influence the regime if it refuses to engage it.  The article reveals that Sen. Webb seems to agree with this line of reasoning.  Webb, the Chair of the Senate Foreign Relation’s Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, is not quite finished in the region yet.  He plans to visit Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.   Senator Webb has always taken special interest in Vietnam since the time he spent there as a Marine during the Vietnam War.  He also speaks Vietnamese and his wife is Vietnamese-American.

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Abu Sayyaf

The Arroyo Administration continues its two-prong approach to the Philippines’ decade old para-military terrorist problem.  The Filipino government has tried to renew peace talks with the Islamic separatist group, Moro Islamic Liberation Front  (MILF).  Although talks had been  intermittent since 2001,  an agreement was reached last years, only to be found unconstitutional by the Filipino Courts.  The result was the Arroyo Administration scrapping the plan and MILF’s negotiators demanding the agreement be implemented before resuming discussion.  Eventually, the armistice broke down and fighting continued, although MILF attributes this to splinter groups not under their control.  In an attempt to continue talks, this year,  President Arroyo called an unilateral ceasefire on the island of Mindanao.  In recent weeks, MILF has softened its stance, agreeing to return to negotiations in Malaysia.

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CNN is reporting that U.S. President Barack Obama will attend the 17th APEC summit in Singapore on November 14 and 15 of this year.  No further travel details have yet been released.

Victor Bout - Arms Dealer Extraordinaire

- The Thai courts refused a request to extradite Viktor Bout (aka The Merchant of Death) to the United States.   Bout, an notorious global arms dealer, is accused by the U.S.  of  attempting to sell more than 700 surface-to-air missiles, a massive cache of automatic weapons, and airplanes and helicopters to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, a Colombian separatist group.  FARC is widely considered to be a terrorist organization and major drug trafficker, but not by the Thai government.  The Colombian government, which has been at war with FARC for decades, is a chief ally of the U.S. in Latin America.

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