Red Shirts in Bangkok

Thailand:  Since the weekend, 120,000 to 250,000 Red Shirts have concentrated on Bangkok, demanding that Thai PM Abhisit dissolve Parliament and call for new elections, which they believe will usher the opposition into a majority, and hopefully signal the return of ousted and exiled Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra.  By Monday, the Red Shirts had succeeded in shutting down parts of the capital and postponing Parliament’s session.  The vast majority of the protesters have congregated around the parliament building and at a military base in the northern suburbs of Bangkok, which the current government uses as an unofficial headquarters.  Vejjajiva has not returned to his office since  the protests began, but he has refused to dissolve parliament.  Still, he said he is open to listening to the protesters complaints.     I supposed that did not satisfy the “rabble”, because  on Tuesday, the protesters poured 1,000 liters of their own blood on the government house and other locations! …..click here to read more

A Rohingya woman and her child

East Timor:  The would be assassins of Timornese President José Ramos-Horta and  Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão have been given sentences ranging from 16 to 24 years in prison.    This would-be junta rebels was mostly composed of disaffected police and military.   This blog detailed the events that preceded this trial in more detail, here.

Indonesia: Another Bali Bombing Mastermind, Dulmatin (aka Joko Pitoyo), is reported to have been killed in a shoot out in Jakarta.  He was believed to be a senior member of Jemaah Islamiyah.

…..click here to read more

From left to right, Hun Sen, Sam Rainsy

Indonesia:  As an update to the growing  backlash in SE Asia over the China-ASEAN FTA,  the Berita Jakarta is already blaming the FTA on a decline in exports from Jakarta:

It can be seen from the decline in the city’s export value by 4.80 percent or US$ 2.828 billion in January this year, from that of December last year reaching US$ 2.968. But, it is higher than the export value in the same period of last year by 20.50 percent.

Although the methodology used to formulate this conclusion is not clear, the Jakarta Central Statistic Agency is pointing all fingers at China.

The agency’s chairman Agus Suherman said the drops were most likely caused by the newly implemented China ASEAN Free Trade Agreement starting January this year. Since the agreement came into effect, the import of Chinese goods through Jakarta capital city has been the highest among other countries, reaching 60.32 percent. The imported goods comprise machineries and electrical devices worth US$ 2.2 billion; machineries and mechanical devices amounting to US$ 1.7 billion; and the rest are organic chemical products, cotton, goods made of iron and steel, fruit, inorganic chemical materials, and plastic goods.

…..click here to read more

Thailand:  This blog has followed the “Shinawatra Saga” in Thailand for awhile.  Thitinan Pongsudhirak has an interesting editorial on the issues at OpinionAsia.  Mr. Pongsudhirak contends that the core issue is not Shinawatra, but democracy and social justice.  For this reason, he believes the Red Shirts (a.k.a. The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, UDD) movement is evolving beyond Shinawatra, although his treatment is still the primary focus of the group.  He also addresses the class issues involved.  Thaksin was corrupt, but he is also a populist who addresses many of the issues of the rural poor, especially in the North and Northeast areas of Thailand.

…..click here to read more

Vietnam:  The Vietnamese government is trying to gather international support to bolster itself in it’s long-standing territorial disputes with China over the Paracel Islands.  China has held military control over the majority of the islands for 30 years, and this year has announced its desire to set up tourism facilities in the archipelago.  In response, Vietnam have been moving covertly to encircle China in a multilateral framework with all of Southeast Asia involved in negotiations.   Since the Chinese government knows it has less leverage with smaller nations in the region in a multinational forum, it typically sticks to bilateral negotiations.  When Vietnam assumes  the ASEAN Presidency this year, Hanoi will be in the best position influence the other member-states to back it, especially considering that many of them have their own territorial issues with China.  However, ASEAN works by consensus, and it is unlikely that Chinese client states such as Cambodia and Myanmar, will risk angering “The Dragon” over issues they have no direct stake in.

…..click here to read more

Anwar Ibrahim

Malaysia: The NY Times has an article concerning ANOTHER Anwar Ibrahim trial.  Over the last 30 years, Mr. Anwar has not been a stranger to Malaysian jails, nor to the charge of sodomy, but his latest running-a foul with the political elite may have some serious repercussions in Malaysia, as well as to the nation’s image abroad.  The entire situation appears to be less about sexual improprieties and more about the epic battle between the opposition and the ruling government coalition which has been in power since Malaysia’s independence from Great Britain. Anwar is the leader of the main opposition coalition, which he is holding together by sheer force of will, so he is once again in the bulls-eye.

In Malaysia, sodomy, or “carnal intercourse against the order of nature” as described by the penal code, is illegal for both heterosexual and homosexual couples and is punishable by 20 years in prison.

Any sentence over one year will result in Anwar being banned from politics for 5 years.  Despite the political viability of both his wife and daughter, his absence will be a major setback for his politically and ethnically diverse coalition.

Vietnam: As first mentioned on this blog last year, Vietnam continues to crack down on political dissidents.  For example, the U.S. educated human rights lawyer, Le Cong Dinh, with 3 others, was charged and convicted, in a one day trial, of “attempting to overthrow the government”, which amounted to supporting human rights and a multi-party political system.  In reality, that mean probably mean the eventual “overthrow” of the government as single party rule would end, which in itself is a violation of the Vietnamese constitution, which is simply an affirmation of party hegemony.

…..click here to read more

This blog previously commented on rising opposition to and grumbling over the China - ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in Southeast Asia, which went into effect on 90 percent of products, on January 1, 2010   Times Magazine Online has an article concerning more of the downsides of the FTA.   For example, Indonesian Trade Minister, Mari Pangestu has already informed ASEAN that his nation wants to exclude 228 domestically produced items for another 2 years.  These items include such things as textiles, food stuffs, chemicals, and electronics due to the fear that they cannot compete with Chinese competition.

Indonesian Industry Minister M.S. Hidayat stated:

“If there aren’t any protective steps taken for these industries we’re afraid that there will be … layoffs and even the closure of those industries,” he said.

Some opponents are even re-stating the classic anti-free trade argument that the FTA will cause a “race to the bottom” where quality will be trumped by price.  To a certain extent this is likely, especially in ASEAN nations with extremely law product safety and health regulations, but there is little evidence being presented that this existing issue will be made worse by the FTA.

…..click here to read more

ASEAN and U.S.:  As predicted by this blog, the Obama Administration is moving to create a comprehensive political-economic rapprochement with East and Southeast Asia.  The economic arm of this policy direction will branch off of the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  So far, the TTP includes a free-trade agreements (FTA) with Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, which  was concluded in 2005, but Washington hopes to expand Australia, Peru, South Korea, and Vietnam in the near term. Long term, the idea is to incorporate most of Southeast and East Asia.  The U.S. does not want to see a line drawn down the middle of the Pacific with China in a leading roll opposite the U.S., similar to the situation between the U.S. and the EU, with the U.S. outside the bloc.

…..click here to read more

ASEAN and China:  This blog has spent considerable time following the

Map of Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal

ASEAN+China free trade deal from the perspective of various nations in the region.  The Asia Times has a new article concerning the “win-win” possibilities of the deal and what the incentive is for ASEAN nations.  It also provides some telling data:

According to estimates of the Central Intelligence Agency in the United States, all of ASEAN together in 2008 had only one-third of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). The economy of Shanghai is one-and-a-half times that of Singapore. Guangdong’s GDP exceeds that of Indonesia, while the combined economies of Guangxi and Yunnan, middling provinces by Chinese standards, exceed those of their neighbors Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar.

Therefore, Southeast Asia is necessarily more alert to the risks as well as the opportunities of its relationship to China. Proportionally, it has more at stake, and the sense of risk as well as opportunity is all the more vivid to individual states in Southeast Asia.

…..click here to read more